With increasing globalization, the persistence of trans-boundary animal diseases (TADs) and plant diseases in the world poses a serious risk to world animal and plant agriculture and food security and jeopardizes international trade. In recent decades, the world has experienced devastating economic losses to farmers from major outbreaks of TADs, such as
1. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) epidemic in Great Britain (2001),
2. Classical Swine Fever in the Caribbean and Europe (1996–2002),
3. Rinderpest (RP) in Africa in the 1980s,
4. Peste des Petits Ruminants in northern Kenya, India and Bangladesh,
5. Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia in Eastern and Southern Africa (late 1990s),
6. Rift Valley fever in the Arabian Peninsula (2000).
7. Stem Rust (Race Ug99) of wheat in Eastern Africa (1999)
8. Brown Stripe Downy Mildew of maize in India during the 1970s
9. Brown Spot of rice in India (causing the Bengal famine of 1942)
10.Bacterial Wilt of solanaceous crops in Latin America and South East Asia
The challenge of controlling trans-boundary pests and diseases has become greater, and the ability to contain or eliminate such incidents has failed to keep pace. This has occurred in part because of the increasing need to integrate international efforts and consider private sector capacities in the design and establishment of effective protection services. Although the involvement of more stakeholders can lead to more effective and efficient decisions, it also complicates and lengthens the process of implementation. In spite of these trends, national efforts still drive decisions regarding protection against pests and diseases and responsibility rests primarily with national agencies. A combination of the following national and international factors affects countries in their efforts to combat trans-boundary diseases:
1. International trade, which has led to: more and faster trade (more host material, more packaging and more opportunities for long-distance “hitchhiking”); trade in fresh horticultural products, floricultural products, live animals and fresh animal products; new travel and trading routes (e.g. from South Africa to Southeast Asia; from Southeast Asia to South and Central America).
2. Conflict and civil unrest, which has led to: difficulties in enforcing quarantine in many areas;- military and refugee movements; a breakdown of institutional support for quarantine and loss of input supply;-increased smuggling; inflows of food aid, which may be contaminated; difficulties in obtaining access to border areas because of landmines and other hazards, thus making these areas difficult to survey.
3. Concern about the effects of pesticides on the environment and human health.
4. The privatization and deregulation of animal and plant health services in some countries.
The impact of animal and plant diseases on agriculture can be assessed in quantitative terms – lost revenues; costs of eradication, decontamination, vaccination and restocking; and the numbers of affected farms, animals and humans. However, the effects are of multi-dimensional character and the societal effects are sometimes overlooked. While export trade losses in a developing country may be small in terms of the dollar amount, the impact upon its pre-epidemic market share is inevitably greater and more persistent. Other impacts on human health and community stability tend to be more visible and last longer in developing countries, particularly at the village level where animals are husbanded primarily for the benefit of the immediate family, often in impoverished circumstances. These economic and social effects can be classified as “direct,” “ripple” (impact on the industry’s upstream and downstream activities), “spillover” (impact on other sectors), “long-term”, or “remote.”
The most direct economic impact of animal and plant diseases is loss of production and/or productivity, and ensuing income losses for farmers. Direct losses are the result of the disease itself, or from animal health measures (stamping-out policies). Direct costs are generally well below the indirect costs of diseases and are directly linked to the rapid containment of outbreaks: case studies have shown that early detection and the implementation of appropriate measures in the event of an outbreak are essential to help minimize direct losses as much as possible.
The agricultural sector plays a significant role in the economic development of many countries. The production of meat and plant-based food items generates income, jobs, and foreign exchange for all stakeholders in the agribusiness industries. Consequently, an epidemic or epizootic can affect the industry’s upstream (inputs, genetic resources) and downstream activities (slaughterhouses, harvesting, processing, marketing) in terms of jobs, income for the stakeholders in the industry, or market access.
A survey by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FA0) on avian flu revealed that in the most seriously affected regions of Indonesia, 20 percent of permanent workers at industrial or commercial farms lost their jobs. Similarly, an outbreak of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in Botswana led to the destruction of more than 300,000 animals in the most seriously affected province, and the immediate closure of the export slaughterhouse, which employed 200 persons. Owing to the catalyst role of livestock raising in the rural economy as a whole, the costs of the indirect effects of these measures were later estimated to be seven times higher than the costs caused by direct losses. In Vietnam, 60 percent of the poorest segment of the population, for which poultry farming accounts for six to seven percent of household income, is particularly vulnerable to income losses caused by avian flu.
For most rural societies, animal husbandry and horticulture contributes directly and indirectly to food security and to nutrition as a source of quality protein, vitamins and trace elements, and commercially tradable products. Certain diseases could have significant repercussions on food supply and the nutrition of poor communities that do not have readily available substitute products, which could therefore lead to famine (rinderpest for example). In 1977/1978 a major Rift Valley fever epidemic in Egypt resulted in 200,000 human cases and 600 fatalities. Twenty years later, a new epidemic affected over 500,000 persons in East Africa, and 500 persons succumbed to the hemorrhagic form of the disease.
Another category of economic impact is linked to individual strategies to avoid contamination—or to survive possible contamination. The example of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) clearly shows the sharp drop in demand in the services sector (tourism, public transport, retail trade, hospitality
and food services) resulting from the combined efforts of individuals to avoid any close contact. Based on the experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome in South-East Asia, the World Bank thinks that an avian flu pandemic could result in a two percent loss of the world’s gross domestic product and cost the world economy US$800 billion in the space of one year. The losses are difficult to calculate and would undoubtedly be much more significant in light of the extremely high mortality rates in developing countries which do not have good health care systems.
The impact of animal diseases on the tourism and leisure sectors could also be quite significant. The negative effect of foot and mouth disease in the United Kingdom on these two sectors amounted to US$49 billion because of restrictions on access to rural areas and represented more than half of the total cost of the disease.
It is difficult to calculate the cost of the public’s loss of confidence in animal industries in their countries, or of an importer country towards the Veterinary Services of the exporter country.
The long-term costs of a slow response are rarely taken into account. Economic analyses focus primarily on the effects of the outbreaks and rarely take into account the long term effects of an endemic situation(characterized by less virulent outbreaks which recur for several years). This is the case of classic swine fever in Haiti where recurrent outbreaks reduced the usage rate by 10 percent, which for pig farmers meant a loss of revenue of US$2.7 million per year. With major crisis, long-term impacts would make themselves felt, since the additional costs of financing prevention and control measures would lead to an equivalent reduction in savings and investments.
Assessing the global impact of an animal disease on international markets would warrant a framework of analysis which would connect markets in spatial terms as well as by products.
It must be pointed out that the crises could have a cumulative impact, particularly since they are amplified by the effects of globalization. For example, the analysis of the global impact of the avian flu crisis in Europe is complicated by recent outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in Brazil, the largest global exporter of beef and poultry. It is therefore easy to imagine what the combination of these two events would mean in terms of the upward push of prices of all meats, similar to what occurred in 2004 with North American beef and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (commonly known as Mad-Cow Disease). The European Union, a net importer of beef, especially from Brazil, would see an increase in the price of beef in its internal markets stemming from the embargo imposed on Brazilian beef because of the foot and mouth disease.
It is imperative to prepare a comprehensive and sustained program of demand-based research, active surveillance, vaccine trials, vector control and grassroots education that can reduce the losses and lessened the impact of an epidemic. The same could be said for any infectious disease not yet controlled. These are the tools that are used primarily by developed countries. These are the tools needed by developing countries. Currently, for developing countries it can be safely stated that much of the planning requires a long-term approach.
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